News

11-Dec-2014
RECENT TRADES - 2014

The following is a brief summary of trades closed in 2014.

From the beginning of 2014, members of this exclusive club were shown 22 trades. Of these, 18 were profitable, 1 was abandoned because the markets didn't reach our entry level but went directly to the profit objective, 1 was a flat trade, and 2 trades made a tiny loss (trade #69 and #77).

Ramki picks his trades very carefully. The results are all here to see for yourself. Every single trade taken in 2014 has been included.  If you want to become a part of his exclusive club, click here.

Some investors/ traders wish to consult with Ramki about a specific stock that they are interested in. The value they get from such a consultation is enormous. Ramki never offers a flippant opinion. A great deal of thought goes into every analysis that he sends out. You may examine some sample consulting outcomes here.

First, here is a summary of the trades done in 2014

Number of trades:        22
Profitable trades:         18
Losing trades:               2
Flat trades:                  1
Abandoned:                  1

No. of trades by Category:
Gold                             2
Silver                            1
Crude Oil                      5
S&P500 Index                1
India's Nifty                   2
US Stock                        3
Indian Stock                  8
Total                            22


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January 2014

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Trade # 57 Gold
Closed on  13 Jan 2014
We bought between 1190 and 1207 and sold at 1255. On the date of closing, we identified 1280 as a key level, which, if reached, will produce a decline below 1230. The actual high was 1278 on 27 Jan, 2014.
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Trade # 58 Crude Oil
Closed on 2 Jan 2014
We sold at 100.50 and it came off by over 200 cents without stopping us.
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Trade # 59 Crude Oil
Closed on 20 Jan 2014
We sold at 94.80 and it went to a low of 93.60. We took profit at 94.15 on a trailing stop.
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Trade # 60 US Blue Chip (Closed in Feb. Please see below)
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Trade # 61 S&P500
Closed on 28 Jan 2014
Sold at 1840 and took profit at 1780
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Trade # 62 Crude Oil
Closed on 27 Jan 2014
Sold at 97.80 and took profit at 96.50
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Trade # 63 Crude Oil
Closed on 31 Jan 2014
Sold at 98.40 and took profit at 97.30
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February 2014

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Trade # 60 US Blue Chip  (Walt Disney)
Closed on 6 Feb 2014
Bought at 70.80 and sold at 71.50
Bought at 70.40 a second time and sold at 71.45

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Trade # 64  India's Nifty Index (Closed in March. Please see below)
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Trade # 65 Crude Oil
Abandoned on 15 Feb 2014
The idea was mooted on 12 Feb 2014 (when crude oil was trading at 100.45) to sell when it reaches 101.55. On 13 Feb, it reached a high of 101.38 and started coming off.
So we decided to BUY at 99.20 with a stop at 99.00. Bit after reaching a low of 99.40, a mere 20 cents away, Crude Oil turned around and went back to 100.66.
It came down a second time, but this time the low was 99.43 and it rallied again to 100.50.
As you can see, we had 3 narrow misses, but the direction was right every time.
However, because we didn't get on board any of the moves, the trade has been abandoned and members were returned the unit that was charged them.
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March 2014

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Trade #64 Nifty Index
Members who subscribed to this trade learned a lot in addition to making some decent money.
Throughout this trade I was bearish. We got the first sell perfectly right, and made some 90 points.
Sold at 6095 and covered at 6005

But after that, it was all about how to navigate the market while remaining bearish. As you probably know, the NIFTY kept going up all the time!  We identified a top at 6082 (actual high was 6079) and a support at 6035 (actual low was 6038).  Then we spotted a key support at 6080 (actual low was 6086).
 
Eventually we sold again at 6190 and 6215, but covered part of it just below 6190. The markets continued to rally, and we sold again at 6260. Our stop was at 6285  (the actual high was 6282) and we covered everything at 6215 because we anticipated another rally even though the Ukraine crisis was raging. Sure enough the Index rallied to 6332.
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Trade # 66 Gold/USD

On 18 Feb, when Gold was at 1322, I suggested buying at 1310 & 1300 for a move to 1365 and higher.
It dipped to a low of 1308 on 20th Feb and we went long at 1311. By 26th Feb, it reached 1345, but stalled there and started going sideways. We took profit at 1332 hoping to reinstate at lower levels.
But after several days, Gold went directly to a high of 1392. We tried to buy on the way up, but narrowly missed. Later on, on the way down, we bought in 2 lots again, at 1332 and 1320. Our stop was at 1304, and profit target was 1350. It went to a high of 1342 and from there came down to 1304 on 26 March at which time I closed the trade.

If executed properly, there should have been no loss on this trade, and many traders made a lot more because they were willing to ride the original position that remained always in the money.

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Trade #67 Long Indian Stock

Bought H T Media Ltd on 4th March 2014 at Rs 76.50 with a stop at 69.50. The potential was mentioned as Rs 120, but that I will guide traders till we saw a 10% gain. The trade was closed on 7th March when it reached 85.20, a gain of over 10% .
(update on 6th June: The stock has reached a high of 118.75! and it never went lower than 81.55 seen on 10th March). WaveTimes is great for both short term and medium term investors.

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Trade #68 Long Indian Stock

Bought Voltas on 13th March 2014 at 138.40. Realized we will reach 133.00 and recommended buying again near 134.20 and 133.10, and exit the 138.40 lot when it approached that level. The low was 133.05. We closed the trade when it was at 146.00 on 18 March 2014, a gain of over 9%. For those who held on, the high seen was 209.40 on 19th May, a gain of over 50%.

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Trade #69 Long US Stock

Bought IBM at 195 and 193.40 on 26 March. Our goal was to make 10%, but we got stopped at 190.70 on 27th March. This is the first loss for the year and interestingly, this was also the 13th trade! Despite the expectation that there will be a recovery to exit at break even or even a decent profit, I didn't change my stop loss. A strategy needs to be followed through, especially the stop loss. There will be many other profitable trades during the year to amply make up for this minor set back. (Note: IBM made a low of 189.11 on 28th March and then turned around to reach a high of 199.21 by 10th April)


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April 2014


Trade #70 India's Nifty Index

On 7th April, when Nifty was at 6705, I said that there was support around 6666 and we will see between 6770 and 6820. The market came down to 6652 and started rallying. On 9th April we sold at 6770 and 6790 with a stop loss at 6870. However, decided to take back one of the two lots on the dip and we sold it back at 6815. The market's high was 6819!

On 13th April, I suggested taking profits at 6740, unless you were willing to risk all the profits because there was still a chance to see 6680. However, I indicated that even if we dip to 6670, we will still very likely get a rally back all the way to 6790 or higher. As if by magic, the market came down to 6666 and rallied all the way to the highs. On 21st April we put in place a plan to sell near 6830 and 6860. The market reached a high of 6861. The thread was closed on 29 April 2014 when the index reached below 6740 again.

Our members got incredible value because in addition to making some real money (some of them are BIG TRADERS!) they also saw how I anticipated so many twists and turns ahead of time, and more importantly, they saw how trading is different from a mere ability to draw Fibonacci projections and retracements.

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Trade #71 Short Selling India's SBI

I made it clear at the outset that this trade was not for everyone. It was meant for those who were willing to take active risks in the market. We were going against the trend and it was meant to be a very short term trade. On 29th April, I suggested selling a small lot at 2070, but pointed out that after dipping to 2050 we could get a full retest of 2130 area before down. The stock recovered to 2107 and came off to 2038 on 5th May. But I was already getting uncomfortable in remaining short and had recommended covering early. By 9th May the stock was near 2130 again, but I repeatedly warned traders not to sell, as we will likely see 2220 or even 2510 should Modi win. I suggested trying one's luck again with a one-third size at 2215 stop at 2250 (risking something like 12 points on a full position), but also suggested selling a full limit at 2475 because 2510 was a significant level. Sure enough the stock went to a high of 2507 and then came down to a low of 2304, allowing traders to not only cover their small set back, but also make a decent profit. The trade was closed with additional comments about the wave count that SBI is likely to follow from here.

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June 2014

Trade #72 Long Small Cap : Mobi
At the outset I made it clear that this trade was for the risk-seekers, and because of the lack of liquidity, the stock could be quite volatile. On 22 June, when Mobi was trading at 8.06, I discussed both bearish and bullish scenarios. At that point in time, both interpretations were possible. If the trade worked out well, we would make between 20and 30%. But because of the alternate bearish count, I was duly cautious from inception. We identified a key support at 7.42 from where a rally towards 9.36 was possible. Traders got long below $8. However, the price action the following day wasn't great, and I suggested getting out of options positions even as early as 8.20 as it looked like we could go down. The stock then duly went down to a low of 7.41 from where it recovered to reach a high of 8.60. The move to 7.41 confirmed that the bearish count was the right count. We moved the stop loss to break-even. For those who sought to stay in the trade till 8.95, a stop at 7.80 was suggested. Eventually, the stock declined to 6.20.  The rally from 7.41 to 8.60 was a 16% move, but I would like to consider this trade as a flat one, i.e. no loss-no gain trade. Of course, the traders who subscribed to it received 20 charts with Elliott Wave notations, and how I dealt with the move at every turn. That was a terrific learning experience, and many made some decent profits too.
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July 2014

Trade #73 Long Indian Stock - Wockhardt

This trade was a roller-coaster. Members started off with buying around 615, but had to exit around 590-595 after it became clear the stock had to do one more move down. We identified 545 as the target. Later on, when news surfaced of the UK raising a class 4 alert against one of the drugs made by Wockhardt, we were prepared for the worst. But failure to move lower even on the back of such news was confirmation that the cyclical forces were strong. Eventually, we reentered the market at around 586 and the trade was closed on the day when the stock traded above 651, assuring a gain of 10% or more for traders. Bear in mind that this is supposed to be a medium term investment trade. As of 25th July, the stock traded as high as 777, up by 32% from the last entry level...

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Trade #74 was scrapped
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August 2014

Trade #75 Long Indian Stock - Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd
On 4th August, when the stock was trading at 761.70, we decided to buy in 2 stages , at 760 and 720 with a view to taking profits at 803. We also identified a support at 746. The stock made a low of 743.30 on 8th August and reached our profit target of 803 on 13th August


Trade #77 Long XAG/USD
This trade probably holds the record as the fastest exit this year. We went long at an average of 19.70 and decided to exit below 19.50, taking a loss of 20 cents. The stop was done in a matter of couple of hours. While this messes with my great track record, you can also see how small we aim to keep our losses when it is warranted.
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November 2014

Trade #78 Long Indian Stock NCC Ltd
On 12th November, when NCC Ltd was trading at Rs57.65, we decided to buy the stock in two stages. The first was at Rs56 and the second at 54. We were looking for a minimum gain of 10%. . On 13th November, the stock dipped to a low of Rs54.85, allowing us to comfortably go long. And on 14th November, it reached a high of 61.80, giving us an amazing 10% return in 2 days. That is the power of Elliott Waves!


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December 2014

Trade #79 Long Indian Stock Radico Khaitan
On 19 November, a trade idea on Indus Ind Bank was posted when it was trading at 718. I mentioned that the greedy will buy at 708, but to be safe we will wait to buy at 693, looking for a 10% move higher. The stock dipped to 700 on 21 Nov and raced higher to see a high of 795 on 5 Dec. Thus we missed buying this. (But some members were aggressive traders, and they made a handsome profit on this. I replaced this trade with another idea on 4 Deecmber by emailing everyone that we should buy Radico Khaitan at the market. It was trading near 90.10 when I sent the email. Even assuming traders purchased it at at the highest price of the day at 91.50, which is 1.5% higher, the stock rallied on 5 December to a high of 102.70 giving a return of over 12% in one day. That is the power of Elliott Waves!


Trade #80 Long another Indian Stock: Wockhardt Ltd
On 4 December, when the stock was trading around Rs 1,000 I suggested we buy to on a dip to 985 looking for at least 5%. but possibly a lot more. As if on cue, the stock rallied immediately tom 1038. So on 7 December I revised the buy level to Rs 1,000 and when the Nifty started coming off, our stock came down to 981 and so we were long. After that, even though the index kept moving lower till today, Wockhardt did not go lower. It reached a high of 1057 on 11 December and the trade was officially closed. The secret to success in the markets is knowing which battle to take part in. WaveTimes helps you there.

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